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8th February 2022
Session 1: VVUQ Fundamentals with a Focus on Epidemiology and Pandemics (Chair: Peter Coveney (University College London) )
12:30 to 13:30 Lunch
13:25 to 13:30 Zoom Room Opens
13:30 to 13:35 Welcome & Introduction Jane Leeks (Newton Gateway to Mathematics)
Peter Coveney (University College London)
13:35 to 14:00 Introduction to UQ - An Overview of the Challenges Posed by Complex Spatio-Temporal Epidemic Models to inform policy (lessons learned so far) Daniel Williamson (University of Exeter)
14:00 to 14:25 Fundamental Principles of Reproducibility Odd Erik Gundersen (Norwegian University of Science and Technology), (NTNU)
14:25 to 14:50 The Impact of Uncertainty on the CovidSim Pandemic Code Wouter Edeling (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI))
Wouter Edeling (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI))
14:50 to 15:10 Coffee Break
15:10 to 15:35 Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Weather and Climate, with Possible Application to Pandemics Tim Palmer (University of Oxford)
15:35 to 16:00 State of the Art Methods and Tools in VVUQ Diana Suleimenova (Brunel University)
16:00 to 16:30 Discussion and Summary
16:30 to 17:30 Drinks Reception
16:30 Session 1 Ends
9th February 2022
Session 2: Wider Applications of VVUQ Methods (Chair: Veronica Bowman (Dstl) )
10:00 to 11:00 Tutorial 1 EasyVVUQ Wouter Edeling (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI))
12:30 to 13:30 Lunch
13:25 to 13:30 Zoom Room Opens
13:30 to 13:35 Welcome & Introduction Peter Coveney (University College London)
13:35 to 14:00 UQ in Modelling of Fusion Power Plants for the UK National Grid Rob Akers (United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority)
Wayne Arter (United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority)
Rob Akers (United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority)
Wayne Arter (United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority)
14:00 to 14:25 Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Projections Used to Inform Adaptation David Sexton (Met Office)
14:25 to 14:50 Probabilistic Calibration of Personalised Heart Models from Sparse and Noisy Measurements Richard Clayton (University of Sheffield)
14:50 to 15:10 Coffee Break
15:10 to 15:35 Model uncertainty in turbulent fluid dynamics Daan Crommelin (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI)), (Universiteit van Amsterdam)
15:35 to 16:00 Molecular Dynamics Peter Coveney (University College London)
16:00 to 16:20 Discussion and Summary
16:20 to 16:40 Quantifying Uncertainty in Assessment of Possible Exoplanet Biosignatures Peter Vickers (Durham University)
16:40 Session 2 Ends
19:00 to 22:00 Dinner - Westminster College
10th February 2022
Session 3: Challenges and Advanced Methods for Epidemiological Modelling (Chair: Ciara Dangerfield (University of Cambridge) )
10:00 to 11:00 Tutorial 2 FabSim Autovalidator Software Derek Groen (Brunel University)
12:00 to 12:30 Good Reporting of Epidemic Models: Mathematics, Statistics and Uncertainty. EPIFORGE 2020. Jane Hutton (University of Warwick)
12:30 to 13:30 Lunch
13:25 to 13:30 Zoom Room Opens
13:30 to 13:35 Welcome & Introduction Peter Coveney (University College London)
13:35 to 14:00 Problems with Combining Models in Absence of Uncertainty Quantification Veronica Bowman (Defence Science and Technology Laboratory)
14:00 to 14:25 Calibration Issues in Epidemiological Modelling TJ McKinley (University of Exeter)
14:25 to 14:50 Very Large Parameter Problems Wouter Edeling (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI))
Wouter Edeling (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI))
14:50 to 15:10 Coffee Break
15:10 to 15:35 Bayesian real-time epidemic monitoring of Covid-19 Angelos Alexopoulos (MRC Biostatistics Unit)
15:35 to 16:00 Local Covid-19 Simulations – Expansion to National Derek Groen (Brunel University)
16:00 to 16:30 Discussion and Summary
16:30 Session 3 Ends