| Session 1: VVUQ Fundamentals with a Focus on Epidemiology and Pandemics (Chair: Peter Coveney (University College London) ) | 12:30 to 13:30 | Lunch | ||
| 13:25 to 13:30 | Zoom Room Opens | |||
| 13:30 to 13:35 | Welcome & Introduction |
Peter Coveney (University College London) Jane Leeks (Newton Gateway to Mathematics) |
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| 13:35 to 14:00 | Introduction to UQ - An Overview of the Challenges Posed by Complex Spatio-Temporal Epidemic Models to inform policy (lessons learned so far) | Daniel Williamson (University of Exeter) |
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| 14:00 to 14:25 | Fundamental Principles of Reproducibility | Odd Erik Gundersen (Norwegian University of Science and Technology), (NTNU) |
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| 14:25 to 14:50 | The Impact of Uncertainty on the CovidSim Pandemic Code |
Wouter Edeling (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI)) Wouter Edeling (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI)) |
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| 14:50 to 15:10 | Coffee Break | |||
| 15:10 to 15:35 | Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Weather and Climate, with Possible Application to Pandemics | Tim Palmer (University of Oxford) |
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| 15:35 to 16:00 | State of the Art Methods and Tools in VVUQ | Diana Suleimenova (Brunel University) |
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| 16:00 to 16:30 | Discussion and Summary | |||
| 16:30 to 17:30 | Drinks Reception | |||
| 16:30 | Session 1 Ends |
| Session 2: Wider Applications of VVUQ Methods (Chair: Veronica Bowman (Dstl) ) | 10:00 to 11:00 | Tutorial 1 EasyVVUQ | Wouter Edeling (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI)) | |
| 12:30 to 13:30 | Lunch | |||
| 13:25 to 13:30 | Zoom Room Opens | |||
| 13:30 to 13:35 | Welcome & Introduction | Peter Coveney (University College London) | ||
| 13:35 to 14:00 | UQ in Modelling of Fusion Power Plants for the UK National Grid |
Rob Akers (United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority) Wayne Arter (United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority) Rob Akers (United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority) Wayne Arter (United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority) |
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| 14:00 to 14:25 | Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Projections Used to Inform Adaptation | David Sexton (Met Office) |
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| 14:25 to 14:50 | Probabilistic Calibration of Personalised Heart Models from Sparse and Noisy Measurements | Richard Clayton (University of Sheffield) |
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| 14:50 to 15:10 | Coffee Break | |||
| 15:10 to 15:35 | Model uncertainty in turbulent fluid dynamics | Daan Crommelin (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI)), (Universiteit van Amsterdam) |
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| 15:35 to 16:00 | Molecular Dynamics | Peter Coveney (University College London) |
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| 16:00 to 16:20 | Discussion and Summary | |||
| 16:20 to 16:40 | Quantifying Uncertainty in Assessment of Possible Exoplanet Biosignatures | Peter Vickers (Durham University) |
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| 16:40 | Session 2 Ends | |||
| 19:00 to 22:00 | Dinner - Westminster College |
| Session 3: Challenges and Advanced Methods for Epidemiological Modelling (Chair: Ciara Dangerfield (University of Cambridge) ) | 10:00 to 11:00 | Tutorial 2 FabSim Autovalidator Software | Derek Groen (Brunel University) | |
| 12:00 to 12:30 | Good Reporting of Epidemic Models: Mathematics, Statistics and Uncertainty. EPIFORGE 2020. | Jane Hutton (University of Warwick) |
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| 12:30 to 13:30 | Lunch | |||
| 13:25 to 13:30 | Zoom Room Opens | |||
| 13:30 to 13:35 | Welcome & Introduction | Peter Coveney (University College London) | ||
| 13:35 to 14:00 | Problems with Combining Models in Absence of Uncertainty Quantification | Veronica Bowman (Defence Science and Technology Laboratory) |
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| 14:00 to 14:25 | Calibration Issues in Epidemiological Modelling | TJ McKinley (University of Exeter) |
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| 14:25 to 14:50 | Very Large Parameter Problems |
Wouter Edeling (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI)) Wouter Edeling (Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica (CWI)) |
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| 14:50 to 15:10 | Coffee Break | |||
| 15:10 to 15:35 | Bayesian real-time epidemic monitoring of Covid-19 | Angelos Alexopoulos (MRC Biostatistics Unit) |
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| 15:35 to 16:00 | Local Covid-19 Simulations – Expansion to National | Derek Groen (Brunel University) |
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| 16:00 to 16:30 | Discussion and Summary | |||
| 16:30 | Session 3 Ends |
